The 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) recently came to an end in Belém. IKEM Director Prof. Dr. Michael Rodi as well as Ievgeniia Kopytsia and Till Reinholz accompanied the negotiations on site. In addition to participating in numerous side events before and during the COP and co-designing the Ukrainian pavilion, the team took the opportunity to engage in intensive discussions with international scientists and political decision-makers. IKEM’s focus this year was on land and soil protection and just transition. In this interview, Prof. Dr. Rodi reports on the atmosphere during the negotiations in the rainforest, the most important topics and the key results of COP30.
What was the atmosphere like at COP30?
Rodi: The atmosphere was much more open and liberal than at previous COPs in autocratic states. The Brazilian leadership endeavored to ensure a respectful discourse between all participants. The strong presence of indigenous groups and the lively participation of civil society – both through demonstrations in the city and on the conference site – was striking. The active involvement of indigenous representatives in substantive discussions on forest protection and financing was also new. Brazil’s desired role as a mediator between fossil and non-fossil countries was palpable. Overall, there was cautious optimism, partly due to Brazil’s goal of politically advancing a global phase-out path for fossil fuels.
Which topics were important or controversial?
Rodi: The negotiations focused on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, climate financing issues and the future use of fossil fuels. The development of a binding phase-out pathway for coal, oil and gas was particularly controversial. There was also disagreement on the financing of adaptation and transformation processes, including the question of how much funding should be increased for the Global South. When it came to deforestation, the main focus was on responsibility and control mechanisms for the goal of ending deforestation by 2030. The concept of “Just Transition” was discussed intensively, with a particular focus on criteria for social participation and fair economic conditions.
What was decided?
Rodi: Many countries presented new nationally determined contributions (NDCs), but according to current analyses, the sum of the NDCs is still not sufficient to meet the 1.5 degree target. It is well above the emissions pathway that would be necessary to limit global warming. In addition, a Just Transition Mechanism was introduced and a tripling of climate adaptation financing was announced – albeit without a clear definition of the baseline or timing. There were no new decisions on deforestation, only a roadmap was developed with reference to the existing goal of halting deforestation by 2030. A new initiative by Brazil, the “Tropical Forest Forever Facility” (TFFF), could improve financing options, but global implementation remains questionable.
How do you rate the result?
Rodi: The conference ended without a breakthrough and with a minimal compromise. A clear global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels is still missing. The blockade of some fossil states such as India, Russia and Saudi Arabia prevented binding resolutions. Nevertheless, pioneering countries in all regions of the world are showing that ambition is possible despite resistance. Overall, the gap between political commitments to climate protection measures and the scientifically proven necessities remains large.
What will be important for the next COP?
Rodi: The COP31 in Ankara, under the presidency of Australia, is under great pressure to act – also because the 1.5 degree target has been exceeded for the first time. The issues remain similar, but we finally need more commitment. The further development and implementation of voluntary initiatives and the development of global phase-out pathways by pioneering countries will be crucial. Multilateralism remains important, but in the form of smaller, ambitious groups rather than large global treaties.
In addition, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) will have to be more closely integrated into international regulation, for example with regard to sustainability criteria, certification and social acceptance. Strengthening ecosystems such as peatlands and wetlands will also become more important, as they both store carbon and improve adaptability.
What did you learn from your trip to Brazil?
Rodi: What impressed me was the hospitality and joie de vivre of my Brazilian hosts. From the excursion to the rainforest and the discussions with indigenous communities, I also realized how important it is to involve local people and respect their traditions in order to protect sensitive ecosystems. The concept of Just Transition is closely linked to politically polarized societies – Brazil is a good example of this. Observations on the ground underline that social participation is a key factor for the success of global transformation processes. The perspectives of the global North and South differ, but there are also many similarities. The different social and economic starting conditions, which must be systematically taken into account for global governance frameworks, are striking.
